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Accumulation to Expansiona long quiet range that ends in one direction

Evidence: WeakProfessionalMarket structure · Regime

A market spends a long time in a narrow range, sweeps one side of it without following through, and then leaves in the other direction. The sweep is read as the last of the sellers being absorbed before the move.

The individual components each have support — ranges compress before expansions, and sweeps of obvious levels do trap orders. The narrative that links them into a single story is not evidenced, and it is very easy to find on a finished chart. Rated Weak for that reason and included because the underlying components are real.

The vocabulary on this page comes from trading education, not from research. Where it renames something with real support, the page says so. A name is not a finding.

Category
Market structure · Regime
Timeframe
H4 range · H1 execution
Suitable pairs
Majors · indices
Session
The sweep and the expansion should both be in active hours
Indicators / tools
The range boundaries · ATR(14) and its own percentile · a displacement filter

Valid setup

MS-10 · ACCUMULATION TO EXPANSION — VALID SETUP EURUSD · H1 · a measured contraction, a sweep that closes back inside, and a close above the midpoint LONG 1.0830 1.0850 1.0871 1.0891 1.0911 1.0932 1.0952 THE RANGE — ATR in the bottom third of its own readings TP2 = the measured move 1R TP2 = range height projected TP1 = the range high ENTRY = close above the midpoint, after displacement MIDPOINT — a close back below here ends it STOP = the sweep low − 0.4 × ATR(14) 1 2 3 4 1.0940 1.0900 1.0884 1.0842 ① A long, measurably quiet range ② The contraction is the evidenced part of this page ③ The story about who is accumulating is not ④ Sweep below, then a CLOSE back inside within two bars ⑤ Close above the midpoint with displacement — enter ⑥ One attempt per range. A second is fitting

Exact rules

Entry

  • The range: at least twenty bars with ATR(14) in the bottom third of its own recent readings. This is the only part of the setup that is measured, and it should be enforced first.
  • The sweep: price trades below the range low and closes back inside within two bars. A close that stays outside is a breakdown, not a sweep, and this is where the story usually goes wrong.
  • Trigger: a close above the range's midpoint after the sweep, with displacement of at least 1.5 × ATR(14) from the sweep low.
  • One attempt per range. If the second sweep also 'works', you are fitting a narrative to a chart.

Stop loss

  • Below the sweep low, minus 0.4 × ATR(14).
  • That low is the whole thesis. If price returns there, the absorption story is false.
  • Risk 0.5%.

Take profit / exit

  • TP1 at the range high.
  • TP2 at the range height projected above it — a measured move.
  • Out if price closes back below the range midpoint. The expansion has not happened and holding for it is hope.

Build Accumulation to Expansion

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More from Market structure

Break of Structure ContinuationBOS, then a higher lowChange of Character ReversalCHoCH, then a lower highLiquidity Sweep → Market Structure Shiftthe full sequence

Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The chart is an illustration of the rules on constructed candles — it is not a record of a trade and not a backtest.