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Intraday Momentumopening period predicts closing period

Evidence: ModerateIntermediateMomentum · Session

The return of a session's first thirty minutes — measured from the previous session's close — predicts the return of its last thirty minutes.

The signal is a number you calculate at 14:00, not a shape you look for on a chart. Every hour in between is outside this strategy's remit, and no position is held through them.

Entry at the start of the final thirty minutes, exit at the session close. The whole trade is defined by time.

Category
Momentum · Session
Timeframe
M15 / M30 · NY session
Suitable pairs
EURUSD · GBPUSD · USDJPY · XAUUSD · index CFDs
Session
New York session, 13:30–20:00 GMT — it needs a defined open and close
Indicators / tools
Previous session close · session open and close times. No indicators.

Valid setup

S16 · INTRADAY MOMENTUM — OPENING PERIOD PREDICTS CLOSING PERIOD EURUSD · M15 · NY session · the signal is a number you compute at 14:00, not a shape you look for LONG 1.08493 1.08569 1.08645 1.08721 1.08797 1.08874 1.08950 OPENING 30 MIN — the signal MIDDLE OF THE SESSION — no position CLOSING 30 MIN — the trade PREVIOUS SESSION CLOSE — the reference opening-period close → return = +0.09% ENTRY at the start of the closing period SL below the pre-window swing low EXIT at the session close 1R session close 1 2 3 4 5 ① Session opens. Reference is the PREVIOUS session's close. ② First two M15 bars close. Compute the opening return: (close of bar 2 ÷ previous close) − 1 = +0.09%. Positive → the closing-period bias is LONG. ③ Middle of the session: no position, whatever price does. The signal says nothing about these hours. ④ ENTRY at the start of the last 30 minutes. ⑤ EXIT at the session close. Time-based, always. 1.08795 1.08691 1.08647 1.08633 1.08551 session open last 30 min close

Exact rules

Entry

  • Define the session — New York is 13:30–20:00 GMT — and note that session's previous close.
  • Opening return = (the close of the last bar of the opening period ÷ the previous session close) − 1.
  • Quality filter, worth testing: require the absolute opening return to sit in the top third of its own 60-session distribution. Skip a flat open.
  • Enter at the open of the first bar of the final thirty minutes, in the direction of the opening return.
  • Nothing here is discretionary — the window and the direction are both fixed in advance.

Stop loss

  • Beyond the swing low or high of the two hours before entry.
  • The stop is secondary in this strategy: the primary exit is the clock. It is there to control the tail, nothing more.
  • Risk 0.5% per trade.

Take profit / exit

  • The session close. There is no price target.
  • This is a fixed-window trade. You are trading a documented time-of-day pattern, not a move.
  • Partial exits break the design. If you want to test them, log it as a separate variant.

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Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The chart is an illustration of the rules on constructed candles — it is not a record of a trade and not a backtest.