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Daily-Momentum-Gated Pullbackdocumented edge, intraday execution

Evidence: StrongIntermediateMomentum · Multi-timeframe

The edge comes from daily momentum, which has the strongest evidence behind it in FX. The M15 chart is execution only — a way to get a better price inside a permission that has already been granted.

The gate: if the pair's daily momentum is positive, today is long-only on that pair. Negative, short-only.

The entry is the resumption of an M15 pullback in the gate's direction. That is all.

The gate is checked first and the chart second. Do it the other way round and the gate becomes a formality you talk yourself past.

Category
Momentum · Multi-timeframe
Timeframe
M15 entry · daily momentum gate
Suitable pairs
A watchlist of six to eight majors; each day, trade only the strongest and weakest by momentum
Session
London and New York
Indicators / tools
Daily (or 96-bar M15) momentum · EMA(20) on M15 · ATR(14)

Valid setup

S18 · DAILY-MOMENTUM-GATED INTRADAY PULLBACK — VALID SETUP AUDUSD · M15 entry, daily gate · the edge is the daily momentum; the M15 chart is only how you get in LONG 0.65234 0.65398 0.65562 0.65727 0.65891 0.66055 0.66219 ENTRY on the resumption close SL below the pullback low +2R reference 1R +2R 1 2 3 4 5 ① Gate checked FIRST, on the panel below: this pair's trailing 1-day return is positive, so today is LONG-ONLY on this pair. Short signals are not taken, however good they look. ② Intraday advance inside that permission. ③ Pullback into the EMA20 — this is a location, not a signal ④ ENTRY when a candle closes back above the pullback high ⑤ Continuation. If the daily gate had been negative, this exact M15 pattern would have been skipped — that is the whole point of separating the edge from the execution. 0.65707 0.65593 0.65535 EMA 20 (pullback reference) pullback Daily momentum gate — trailing 1-day return (%). Long-only while this is positive. 0 — the gate 1-day ROC

Exact rules

Entry

  • The gate, once a day before the market opens: compute each watchlist pair's trailing one-day (or 20-day) return. Positive means long-only, negative means short-only.
  • A stronger optional gate: rank the pairs and trade only the top two and bottom two — the cross-sectional version.
  • On M15, wait for a pullback in the gate's direction: price touches or crosses the EMA(20).
  • Trigger: a candle that closes above the pullback high, for a long.
  • Enter at the next bar's open.

Stop loss

  • 0.35 × ATR(14) below the pullback low, for a long.
  • If price goes below that low the intraday structure has broken. The daily gate may still be positive, but this particular entry was wrong.
  • Risk 0.5%–1%.

Take profit / exit

  • The next structural reference on M15 — the previous swing high.
  • A minimum of 1:2 measured to the pullback low.
  • Gate-based exit, worth testing: if the daily gate flips, close the whole position regardless of what M15 is doing.

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Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The chart is an illustration of the rules on constructed candles — it is not a record of a trade and not a backtest.