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London 16:00 Fix Flowmonth-end rebalancing

Evidence: StrongProfessionalOrder Flow · Scheduled Event

On the last business day of the month, large asset managers rebalance their currency hedges, and that rebalancing executes at the 16:00 London fix.

Which means part of the order flow in that window is scheduled. You do not have to guess it from the chart — the calendar tells you.

The direction is estimated from the month's equity performance. Entry around 15:45, and exit at 16:00 — after that the flow is gone.

Category
Order Flow · Scheduled Event
Timeframe
M1 primary · M5 secondary
Suitable pairs
EURUSD · GBPUSD · USDJPY · USDCHF — the pairs with large equity markets behind them
Session
15:44–16:03 London time only, and only at month-end or quarter-end
Indicators / tools
A calendar of month-end dates · equity index performance · tick volume against its 20-bar average

Valid setup

S66 · LONDON 16:00 FIX FLOW (MONTH-END) — VALID SETUP EURUSD · M1 · month-end hedge rebalancing produces order flow that is scheduled, not guessed LONG 1.08383 1.08430 1.08477 1.08525 1.08572 1.08619 1.08667 PRE-WINDOW — no position 15:44–16:00 — the run-in FIX WINDOW 15:57–16:03 POST-FIX — flow is gone ENTRY 15:45 in the direction of the estimated flow EXIT AT 16:00 — not after SL below the pre-window range 1R target = the fix 1 2 3 4 5 6 ① Calendar checked FIRST: is today the last business day of the month? If not, this setup does not exist today. ② Direction estimated before the window from the month's equity performance — not from the chart. ③ Entry at 15:45, before the flow arrives. ④ The run-in: price drifts one way on rising volume as hedge adjustments are worked into the fix. ⑤ EXIT AT 16:00. This is the whole discipline. ⑥ Post-fix the flow disappears and price often gives part of it back — holding past the fix is a different trade. 1.08583 1.08487 1.08428 15:00 15:45 entry 16:00 FIX Tick volume vs 20-bar average — the fix is the single busiest minute of the day avg 20

Exact rules

Entry

  • Calendar gate: the last business day of the month only, with quarter-end taking priority.
  • Direction: look at the month's equity performance. If US equities clearly outperformed European ones, hedged European investors have to increase their dollar hedge — dollar buying at the fix. Write the direction down in advance.
  • Enter between 15:44 and 15:47 London, in that estimated direction.
  • Size below normal. This is an event trade and slippage is material.
  • One position, one day. No averaging.

Stop loss

  • Beyond the opposite extreme of the pre-window range, 15:00–15:44.
  • Typically six to twelve pips on EURUSD.
  • If price goes through that range, your direction estimate was wrong and the day's trade is finished.

Take profit / exit

  • Time exit at 16:00 London. This matters more than any take profit.
  • Conservative variant: exit at 15:58, before the most volatile seconds of the fix. Test it separately.
  • No price target. You are trading a flow window, not a move.

Build London 16:00 Fix Flow

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Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The chart is an illustration of the rules on constructed candles — it is not a record of a trade and not a backtest.