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Macro-Announcement Jump Continuationthe adjustment, not the jump

Evidence: ModerateProfessionalOrder Flow · Event

On a scheduled macro release the exchange rate jumps immediately. That jump is not your trade — the adjustment after it is.

The rule: treat the first three minutes after the release as untradeable, because the spread blows out. At the close of the third minute, if price has held most of the jump, enter in the jump's direction.

The hold test is the entire filter. Volume tells you the release happened; it never tells you which way it will resolve.

Category
Order Flow · Event
Timeframe
M1 primary · M5 secondary
Suitable pairs
EURUSD · GBPUSD · USDJPY — the tightest-spread majors only
Session
Scheduled US and European release times
Indicators / tools
An economic calendar with consensus forecasts · tick volume against its 20-bar average · ATR(14)

Valid setup

S69 · MACRO-ANNOUNCEMENT JUMP CONTINUATION — VALID SETUP EURUSD · M1 · the jump is not the trade; the adjustment that follows it is LONG 1.08493 1.08668 1.08843 1.09018 1.09194 1.09369 1.09544 PRE-RELEASE — flat, no position UNTRADEABLE — spread blows out, fills are not real ADJUSTMENT WINDOW ENTRY at the close of the 3rd minute SL below the post-news consolidation low +2R reference 1R +2R 1 2 3 4 5 ① Pre-release: flat. No position into a scheduled number, ever — the gap can jump straight past your stop. ② The jump. Volume 9× average. Do NOT trade this candle: spread widens several-fold and your fill is not real. ③ Minute 2: still chaotic, spread still wide ④ ENTRY at the close of minute 3, in the direction of the jump, only if price has HELD the move (no full retrace). ⑤ Continuation as the market finishes repricing. This adjustment is what the research documents. 1.09319 1.08818 1.08568 release entry (+3 min) Tick volume — 9× average on the release minute avg 20

Exact rules

Entry

  • Note the exact release time and the consensus forecast in advance. Without a consensus there is no surprise to measure.
  • Be flat at the release.
  • Count three M1 candles after it — the release candle plus two.
  • Hold test: at the close of the third candle, price has kept at least 60% of the jump candle's range, in the jump's direction.
  • Enter at that third candle's close, in the jump's direction.
  • Spread check: if the spread is still more than twice normal, wait another minute.

Stop loss

  • Beyond the opposite extreme of the post-news consolidation — from the release candle to the entry.
  • Typically fifteen to thirty pips, much wider than normal, so the position size has to be much smaller than normal.
  • The stop is wide because the volatility genuinely is. Tightening it only raises the stop-out rate.

Take profit / exit

  • TP1 = half the position at 1R.
  • TP2 = 2R, or the next structural level.
  • Time exit thirty minutes after the release. By then the adjustment is over and you are trading a normal market.

Build Macro-Announcement Jump Continuation

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More from Order flow & volume

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Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The chart is an illustration of the rules on constructed candles — it is not a record of a trade and not a backtest.