Moving Average Envelope
a fixed percentage, on purposeAn envelope is a moving average with a fixed percentage band around it — not a standard deviation, not an ATR multiple. A half-percent envelope is half a percent whatever volatility is doing.
Every strategy carries its exact rules, an annotated chart of the setup, the research behind why it should work at all — and the conditions under which you should not take it.
Showing 31–40 of 41 matching strategies
An envelope is a moving average with a fixed percentage band around it — not a standard deviation, not an ATR multiple. A half-percent envelope is half a percent whatever volatility is doing.
Ranges do not narrow at random. A market that has stopped moving is a market where the two sides have run out of disagreement, and that state does not last — the next expansion arrives, usually soon, because volatility clusters.
Two ways of measuring the same width disagree in a useful way. Bollinger bands are built from standard deviation, which collapses fast when price goes quiet. The Keltner channel is built from average true range, which collapses slowly.
The opposite trade to a contraction breakout. Here the expansion has already happened — one bar has a true range far larger than anything around it — and the question is whether to join it or fade it.
Intraday volatility in FX is not flat and it is not random across the day. It follows a shape driven by which financial centres are awake, and that shape is one of the most stable patterns in the whole market — stable enough that high-frequency researchers have to remove it before they can model anything else.
A tempting idea: measure the volatility regime, and run a trend strategy in one regime and a mean-reversion strategy in the other. Two books of this library, switched by one number.
Gold trades around the clock, but not to the same people. The Asian hours are dominated by physical demand — jewellery, coin and bar buying in the two countries that consume most of the world's gold — while the London and New York hours are dominated by financial flows.
Some strategies pass challenges easily and some do not, and it has little to do with how profitable they are. A method with a high hit rate and modest winners produces a smooth curve that clears a target without ever approaching the floor. A trend method with the same annual return arrives in three trades and spends the rest of the time in drawdown.
Every page so far has required the timeframes to agree. This one trades the disagreement: the daily trend is up, the hourly is stretched and turning down, and the trade is the short.
Put the same momentum indicator on the daily, the four-hour and the hourly, and trade only when all three point the same way. It feels like three confirmations. It is not.
The mechanism has peer-reviewed, FX-specific research behind it.
The mechanism is sound, but at least one step of it is untested.
Practitioner literature only — no published research supports the mechanism.
It rates the mechanism — whether there is published research explaining why the market should behave this way. It does not rate profit. Strong does not mean the trade will work. None of these have been run on our own account, and no page here shows a backtest figure.
One instrument, one timeframe, every rule visible on the chart.
Several conditions have to line up, and execution starts to matter.
Needs an outside data feed, a basket, real order flow, or an unusual tolerance for lumpy losses.
The level describes what it takes to run the strategy, not how well it works. Several Beginner pages are better evidenced than several Professional ones — a basket carry trade is Professional because it needs eight currencies and a swap table, not because it is cleverer than buying a pullback.
Reading the library is free. A plan is what lets you turn one into a robot.
Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing in this library is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The charts are illustrations of the rules on constructed candles — they are not records of trades and not backtests.